AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year explicit revenue-ramp DCF: revenue of $175M/$600M/$1.5B/$2.8B/$4.2B years 1-5 (reflecting FY2026 guidance of $150-200M then commercial buildout with AT&T/Verizon/Vodafone/Rakuten and a $1.3B contracted backlog), growing 30%/22%/16%/12%/9% years 6-10 to ~$9.4B; FCF margin of -120%/-50%/-5%/15%/30% years 1-5 (heavy satellite capex, ~$1.5B TTM) improving to 45% by year 10 on the network's low incremental cost once the constellation is built; 13% discount rate; 3% terminal growth; net debt ~$0.5B; 389.2M diluted shares.

Reasoning: A long-horizon, scenario-based DCF was used instead of a near-term FCF multiple because AST SpaceMobile is pre-commercial-scale with negative current FCF (-$1.1B TTM); the revenue ramp is grounded in the company's FCC commercial authorization (April 2026), signed MNO agreements and $1.3B backlog, while a high 13% discount rate and a conservative margin path reflect substantial execution, dilution and financing risk versus the more bullish sell-side consensus (avg. target ~$80).