Applied Energetics, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Probability-weighted scenario NPV (real-options approach) given AERG has almost no current cash flow: 70% probability of continued dilution/stagnation ($0.10/share residual value, reflecting $1.12M cash vs ~$1M debt and ~$10.4M/yr TTM cash burn), 25% probability of a moderate niche-contract scenario reaching ~$30M revenue by year 7 valued at ~5x sales ($2.50/share), 5% probability of a breakout DoD directed-energy program-of-record scaling to $300-400M revenue by year 10 valued at ~3x sales ($15/share); weighted value on 224.0M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: AERG's TTM revenue is only $0.24M, it carries a going-concern qualification, cash of ~$1.1M funds barely one more quarter of its ~$10M/yr burn, and its $280M market cap is almost entirely optionality on directed-energy/counter-drone defense contract wins rather than existing cash flow, so a probability-weighted scenario/real-options NPV is far more defensible than a DCF on non-existent free cash flow.