Advantage Solutions Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-yr unlevered FCF DCF: $130M normalized FCF base (between $116M TTM actual FCF and management's $250-275M "adjusted unlevered FCF" 2026 guidance); 4% growth yrs1-5, 2% yrs6-10; 11% discount rate (leverage/execution risk premium); 2% terminal growth; $1.44B net debt subtracted; 12.82M shares outstanding (post 1-for-25 reverse split).

Reasoning: Advantage Solutions carries ~$1.5B of debt against ~1% consensus revenue growth and management itself flags its "Branded recovery taking longer than expected," so a conservative FCF base plus an elevated discount rate for leverage risk is more defensible than taking guidance at face value; result is well below the ~$33 market price and $42 analyst target, reflecting balance-sheet risk.