Wallbox N.V.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Probability-weighted distressed valuation: 70% probability the court-supervised Spanish restructuring (agreed with creditors holding >83% of financial debt) completes successfully, in which case post-restructuring/post-dilution equity is estimated via 0.5x price-to-sales on ~€140M stabilized revenue (~$75M), with existing shareholders retaining ~60% of pro forma equity after the EUR10.65M new equity injection and debt-to-2030 conversions (~$45M attributable); 30% probability of further distress/total loss ($0); expected value = 0.7x$45M + 0.3x$0 = ~$31.5M

Reasoning: Wallbox's 20-F explicitly states substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern, with only EUR4.4M cash at YE2025 against a EUR74.7M working-capital deficit and EUR164.7M in debt; the business is entirely dependent on the restructuring plan closing. Expected-value estimate of ~$31.5M is below the ~$70M market cap, implying the market may be pricing more favorable restructuring/dilution terms than this base case assumes; given the going-concern risk, this estimate carries unusually high uncertainty