Erasca, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV) sum-of-the-parts: ERAS-0015 pan-RAS molecular glue (assumed peak sales $2.5B, 30% probability of success given Phase 2 Fast Track data, rNPV multiple ~3x) = ~$2.25B; naporafenib pan-RAF Phase 3 SEACRAFT-2 (peak sales $0.6B, 40% probability, 2.5x) = ~$0.6B; ERAS-4001 Phase 1 pan-KRAS (peak sales $1.0B, 10% probability, 2x) = ~$0.2B; plus net cash of $311M ($384.3M cash/investments less ~$73.2M total debt per Q2 2026 release)

Reasoning: Clinical-stage, pre-revenue biotech so a cash-flow DCF is not meaningful; rNPV is the standard valuation approach. Base-case rNPV of ~$3.36B is well below the ~$5.16B market cap/consensus-implied value, consistent with the market pricing a higher probability of success for ERAS-0015 (57% monotherapy response rate, Fast Track) than this conservative base case assumes; 11-analyst consensus price target of $22.09 implies further upside this model does not capture