Ecopetrol S.A.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year FCF DCF: $5.5B free cash flow base (reflecting the consolidated group including ISA's steady regulated power-transmission cash flow alongside E&P/refining, above the $3.6B standalone TTM figure); growth -2%/-1%/0%/1%/1%/1.5%/1.5%/2%/2%/2%; 10% discount rate (incorporating Colombia sovereign/political risk); 2% terminal growth; -$27.26B net debt; 2.056B ADR shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Ecopetrol is a majority state-owned, politically-sensitive integrated energy and power-transmission group; a higher discount rate reflects governance/political risk, while adding ISA's regulated transmission cash flows corrects for the standalone E&P FCF figure materially understating total group cash generation.