Denali Therapeutics Inc.

DNLI ·Healthcare, Drug Manufacturers - General, United States
Valuation › AI Valuation

AI Valuation

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

AI Fair Value $13.15
Market Price $19.16
Overvalued By 45.7%

Method: 10-year explicit cash-flow ramp DCF (not a growth-rate DCF): projected annual FCF of -$450M, -$400M, -$300M, -$150M, $0M, $150M, $300M, $400M, $450M, $480M over years 1-10 as Takeda/Sanofi-partnered enzyme-replacement and neurodegeneration pipeline assets launch and scale; 12% discount rate; 3% terminal growth; +$0.67B net cash; 159.85M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Denali is a clinical/early-commercial biotech with negligible current revenue and heavy R&D burn, so value is driven by modeling the expected path from today's cash burn to future commercial profitability as pipeline programs read out and launch, rather than growing today's tiny/negative cash flow at a fixed rate.