HF Sinclair Corporation

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Normalized mid-cycle DCF for a cyclical refiner: 10-year FCF history (pre-merger years scaled ~1.3x for the larger post-2022 combined HF Sinclair footprint) averaging ~$1.03B/yr used as mid-cycle normalized FCF; near-term FCF tapered from the current strong run-rate (Year 1 $2.2B, Year 2 $1.7B, Year 3 $1.3B, Year 4 $1.1B), then perpetuity from Year 5 at $1.05B growing 2%/yr; 9% discount rate; $1.08B net debt (total debt $3.34B, cash $2.26B); 177.78M diluted shares.

Reasoning: Refining margins are highly cyclical and currently well above trend, so capitalizing the current earnings peak would overstate value; FCF was instead normalized to a scale-adjusted full-cycle average with current strength tapered down over several years.