Copa Holdings, S.A.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year DCF on TTM unlevered FCF of $231.6M; FCF growth 8% years 1-3 (revenue growth largely offset by continued elevated fleet capex), 10% years 4-6 (capex moderates as the new Boeing 737 MAX order deliveries complete), 5% years 7-10; 10% discount rate for airline cyclicality and fuel-cost risk; 3% terminal growth; net debt ~$1.3B (using cash plus short-term investments); 40.93M diluted shares.

Reasoning: Copa's April 2026 order for up to 60 additional 737 MAX aircraft (list price ~$13.5B) means capex will stay structurally elevated for years, compressing free cash flow even as revenue grows, so near-term FCF growth was held below revenue growth; the resulting value is below both the current share price and the bullish sell-side average target, reflecting the capex-intensity risk.