Coya Therapeutics, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted rNPV: $800M estimated peak U.S. ALS sales for lead asset COYA 302, risk-adjusted at 15% probability of success given its ongoing (not yet completed) Phase 2/3 ALSTARS trial; assumed 2030 launch with margin ramp from 10% to 35% by 2033, 13% discount rate, -2% terminal decline; plus $43M cash and no debt; 23.46M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Coya is a clinical-stage biotech with no approved products and negative operating cash flow, so a probability-weighted NPV of its lead ALS program is more appropriate than a standard FCF DCF; the discount rate and low success probability reflect the risk inherent in an as-yet-incomplete pivotal trial in a historically difficult-to-treat indication, and current cash is added back since it has not yet been consumed by commercial operations.