ConocoPhillips
AI Valuation
AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.
Method: 10-year two-stage FCFE DCF: $9.5B normalized free cash flow base (blend of FY2025 $7.24B and TTM $10.06B, reflecting the enlarged post-Marathon Oil-acquisition production base); 3% annual FCF growth for years 1-5; 2% for years 6-10; 9% discount rate reflecting commodity-price risk; 2% terminal growth; $16.72B net debt ($23.29B total debt less $6.57B cash); 1.20B shares outstanding.
Reasoning: As a cyclical E&P, ConocoPhillips' value depends on a mid-cycle, normalized free cash flow rather than a single year's commodity-driven figure; averaging recent actual and TTM FCF smooths oil-price volatility, and the higher 9% discount rate compensates for commodity-price and geopolitical risk.