Coinbase Global, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year two-stage DCF on a cycle-normalized operating cash flow base of $1.8B (between the TTM figure of $1.71B and the 4-year 2022-2025/TTM average of ~$2.0B, smoothing crypto boom/bust swings); growth 10% years 1-3, 8% years 4-6, 5% years 7-10; 12% discount rate reflecting crypto-market volatility and regulatory uncertainty; 3% terminal growth; net cash $2.12B; 263.84M diluted shares.

Reasoning: A standard unlevered FCF DCF is a poor fit for Coinbase because its reported operating cash flow is heavily distorted by mark-to-market swings on its own crypto holdings and by trading-volume cyclicality, so a mid-cycle normalized cash-flow base with a higher discount rate for regulatory/volatility risk was used instead; the result implies the market price embeds meaningful optionality beyond normalized earnings power.