Cogent Biosciences, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted 10-year NPV: $1.5B probability-weighted (85% commercial success probability) combined peak annual sales for bezuclastinib across GIST and advanced systemic mastocytosis; revenue ramp 2027-2031 to peak, 30% steady-state net margin, 11% discount rate, -3% terminal decline after 2036 for patent/competitive erosion; plus $865.9M net cash and no debt; 173.57M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Cogent is a near-commercial biotech with two positive Phase 3 readouts (PEAK in GIST and APEX in advanced systemic mastocytosis) and NDAs filed or accepted but no current product revenue, so a probability-weighted risk-adjusted NPV of the lead asset's commercial opportunity is more defensible than a standard FCF DCF on currently negative earnings; net cash is added because the balance sheet, not operations, currently funds the company.