COMPASS Pathways plc

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year probability-adjusted rNPV of COMP360 commercial launch plus net cash: $1.2B assumed US peak sales for treatment-resistant depression (2027 launch, ramping 5%/15%/30%/50%/70%/85%/95%/100%/100%/95% of peak over years 1-10); FCF margins ramping from -80% (launch costs) to a mature 55%; 85% probability of regulatory approval/commercial success; 11% discount rate; no terminal value beyond year 10; plus $378.7M net cash; 138.48M ADS shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Compass is a pre-commercial biotech whose value is dominated by one binary asset (COMP360 psilocybin therapy), so a standard FCF DCF on historical financials is meaningless; a probability-weighted (risk-adjusted) NPV of the prospective product launch, grounded in the company's own 2027 launch target and positive Phase 3 TRD durability data, plus its large net cash balance, is the most defensible approach.