Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Sum-of-parts NAV/DCF

Reasoning: Blanket Mine (64%-owned by CMCL, ~75koz Au/yr, FY26 AISC guidance $2,100-2,300/oz midpoint $2,200): attributable after-tax FCF at a conservative $2,900/oz long-term gold price (vs spot ~$4,218/oz), discounted at 10% over 12-yr mine life = ~$160M. Bilboes Project (100%-owned, Nov-2025 feasibility study): company-disclosed post-tax NPV of $582M at 8% discount rate using $2,548/oz LOM gold price and $1,061/oz AISC, ~200koz/yr steady-state production from 2029, 10.8-yr life; haircut 25% for financing/dilution/execution risk given $584M capex (peak funding $484M) versus CMCL's own $464M market cap = ~$437M. Plus net cash of ~$55M (cash $172M less debt $117M, most recent quarter). Total NAV ~$652M / 19.34M diluted shares = ~$34/share, versus current price $24.01, implying undervaluation consistent with Buy-rated consensus (though below the $42.73 analyst average target, since this estimate independently risk-adjusts the Bilboes build-out rather than assuming full execution).