Calumet, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year unlevered FCF DCF: $132M run-rate FCF base (annualizing the Montana Renewables SAF-driven free cash flow ramp seen in FY2025/TTM, ahead of the trailing 12-month $73.5M figure); FCF growth 20%/18%/15%/12%/10% years 1-5 tapering to 8%/7%/6%/5%/4% years 6-10; 10.5% discount rate; 3% terminal growth; -$2,193.4M net debt ($138.6M cash less $2,332M total debt); 87.9M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Calumet is a heavily levered, formerly-negative-FCF specialty/renewable-fuels refiner whose equity value is a thin, leverage-sensitive residual; a normalized FCF base that reflects the Montana Renewables SAF ramp and 45Z tax-credit economics, discounted at a higher rate for refining-sector and leverage risk, and then reduced by the full $2.2B net debt load, is the most defensible way to isolate what is left for shareholders after creditors.