Celldex Therapeutics, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted (rNPV) sum-of-the-parts across four barzolvolimab indications, using analyst-cited peak global sales (CSU $1.0B, prurigo nodularis $400M, eosinophilic esophagitis $300M, atopic dermatitis $500M, within the broadly cited $1.5-3B combined peak-sales consensus), a 28% peak operating margin, indication-specific probability of success (70% CSU given positive Phase 3 data reported Sept 2026; 30%/25%/20% for the earlier-stage PN/EoE/AD programs), launch years 2028-2032, and a 12% discount rate, giving ~$876.7M of risk-adjusted pipeline value; adding the $712.7M net cash position (cash & short-term investments $717.6M less $4.9M debt, vs. 78.53M shares, $2.49B market cap, price $31.65) gives ~$1.59B equity value, or ~$20.25/share.

Reasoning: Celldex has essentially no product revenue (TTM revenue just $158,000), so a probability-weighted pipeline NPV plus net cash is the appropriate framework rather than a revenue DCF or multiple; the result sits well below the $31.65 market price and $62.50 average analyst target because it discounts the three earlier-stage indications heavily and uses the lower end of the disclosed combined peak-sales range.