Cingulate Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Probability-adjusted (rNPV) DCF: net cash of ~$21.0M (Q2 2026 cash of $28.4M less ~$7.4M total debt) plus a 70%-probability-weighted 10-year explicit FCF forecast (2027-2036) discounted at 15%. Revenue is modeled ramping from ~$12M at 1H2027 launch of CTx-1301 to a peak of ~$190M in 2031-2032, declining to ~$140M by 2036 as competition/erosion sets in, with operating margin ramping from negative (launch costs) to ~28% at scale and a modest terminal value added for the 1-2 years beyond the explicit window; result divided by 13.19M diluted shares outstanding

Reasoning: Cingulate is pre-revenue (CTx-1301 for ADHD received a CMC-related Complete Response Letter in 2025 despite positive Phase 3 efficacy/safety data, with resubmission and commercial launch now targeted for 1H2027), so a conventional DCF on historical cash flows is meaningless; a risk-adjusted NPV is the standard, more rigorous approach for a binary-outcome clinical-stage/pre-launch pharma, and a 70% approval/launch probability (below the 85% used in sponsored sell-side coverage) plus a 15% discount rate reflect the regulatory and commercial-execution risk that remains after the CRL