Cipher Digital Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Sum-of-the-parts NAV: (1) Bitcoin treasury 1,500 BTC at ~$84,660/BTC = $127M; (2) legacy self-mining segment valued at 3x TTM revenue of $191M = $573M; (3) AI/HPC hosting business valued from disclosed contracted backlog (~$9B Barber Lake two 10-yr leases + ~$5.5B Black Pearl 15-yr AWS lease ~= $14.5B total) converted to a ~$1.27B/yr full-ramp run-rate, 55% stabilized EBITDA margin (~$700M EBITDA), a 14x EBITDA multiple (~$9.8B) discounted 2 years at 10% for construction/ramp risk = ~$8.1B; total asset value ~= $8.80B minus net debt of $4.755B (total debt $5,587M less cash $832M per stockanalysis.com TTM balance sheet) = equity value ~= $4.05B; divided by 415.03M shares = $9.75/share. Current price $15.71, market cap $6.52B as of Oct 2, 2026.

Reasoning: Cipher has transformed from a pure bitcoin miner into a hybrid bitcoin-miner/AI-data-center-landlord (Google-backed, with AWS and Fluidstack as hosting tenants), so a NAV/sum-of-parts blending bitcoin holdings, a mining-multiple on legacy operations, and a discounted-contracted-backlog valuation of the AI hosting business is more appropriate than a single-method DCF; this heavily caveated estimate comes in below the current market price and well below the ~$30.93 analyst consensus target, reflecting conservative treatment of still-unbuilt capacity, ~$5.6B of debt/converts taken on to fund the buildout, and substantial execution, dilution (Google's warrants), and bitcoin-price risk.