ChronoScale Holdings Corporation

CHRN ·Industrials, Industrial Machinery, United States
Valuation › AI Valuation

AI Valuation

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

AI Fair Value $17.42
Market Price $19.15
Overvalued By 10.0%

Method: 10-year unlevered FCF DCF: $800M yr1 revenue base (a ~20% haircut to the company's announced $1B contracted run-rate revenue milestone, to risk-adjust for execution/ramp timing, since trailing-twelve-month GAAP revenue of $71.6M is far below that run-rate and actually declined 15% YoY during the AI-datacenter buildout); revenue growth of 35% in yr1 decelerating to 7% by yr10 as contracted capacity ramps and then matures; EBITDA margin rising from 30% to 50% by yr10, typical of scaled GPU/AI-compute infrastructure once utilization stabilizes; FCF conversion from EBITDA starting low at 20% (heavy capex during the buildout phase) and rising to 54% by yr10 as capex intensity falls relative to revenue; 15% discount rate reflecting high capital intensity and customer-concentration/execution risk; 3% terminal growth; -$110.9M net debt ($9.7M cash less $120.6M debt); 145.64M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: ChronoScale is an early-stage AI-compute infrastructure provider whose trailing financials (declining revenue, negative gross margin) reflect heavy upfront capex rather than its real forward economics, so valuing it off a risk-adjusted version of its own disclosed $1B contracted run-rate and typical GPU-cloud margin/capex ramps is more grounded than using trailing GAAP figures or taking the run-rate claim at face value.