Cullinan Therapeutics, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV): net cash $356M at 6/30/2026 = $5.53/share; zipalertinib (NDA accepted under RTOR, PDUFA 2/27/2027, Taiho deal of $30M+$100M regulatory milestones plus 50/50 US profit share and ~12% ex-US royalty) assumed 85% probability of success, $750M peak global sales, ~$130M average annual Cullinan cash flow over a 10-year commercial life (2028-2037) discounted at 12% = $557.5M, plus PV of milestones $90.6M, total zipalertinib rNPV $648M = $10.07/share; early pipeline (CLN-978, CLN-049, velinotamig) valued as options at $325M combined ($5.05/share) given insufficient peak-sales data for full rNPV; sum of parts $1,329M / 64.35M shares = $20.65/share

Reasoning: Cullinan is pre-revenue so DCF/comparables are not meaningful; rNPV isolates the probability-weighted value of its most de-risked, near-term asset (zipalertinib, post-positive-Phase-3 with NDA filed) plus cash, while treating the earlier autoimmune T-cell engager pipeline as call options rather than forcing unsupported peak-sales assumptions onto Phase 1 programs