Cadiz Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Contracted-asset NAV: PV of Northern Pipeline water-supply contracts (25,000 acre-feet/year capacity at ~$850/AF net revenue, ramping from 10% to 100% utilization over 5 years then growing at 2.5% CPI-linked escalation, 50% FCF margin, 11% discount rate) of ~$97M, plus $16.54M cash and an estimated $50M value for non-pipeline land/water assets (Mojave groundwater bank, Fenner Valley), less $130.51M total liabilities; 84.68M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Cadiz is a pre-commercial water-infrastructure company with persistently negative operating cash flow, so a standard FCF DCF is not meaningful; its one source of contracted, quantifiable cash flow is the Northern Pipeline delivery agreements (85% already contracted), which I valued directly, while treating its larger uncontracted water-banking optionality conservatively since it has no signed, priced agreements yet.