Cadeler A/S

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year unlevered FCF DCF: $250M normalized post-newbuild FCF base (vs. -$334M reported TTM FCF, which reflects heavy vessel newbuild capex); 10% annual FCF growth yrs 1-5 (contracted offshore wind installation backlog driving fleet deliveries through 2028); 4% yrs 6-10; 9% discount rate; 2.5% terminal growth; $1.60B net debt; 385.88M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Cadeler's reported FCF is deeply negative only because it is mid-build on new wind turbine installation vessels (WTIVs); normalizing to a post-buildout maintenance-capex FCF base (close to its $228.9M TTM net income) better reflects steady-state economics of a young fleet with multi-year charter backlog, while a 9% discount rate and below-consensus growth reflect real leverage and offshore-wind demand-cycle risk.