Chain Bridge Bancorp, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Multi-stage Residual Income (RI) / excess-ROE model for a bank. Starting book value per share (Q2 2026) BVPS0=$27.99; cost of equity r=10.0%; 100% earnings retention. ROE path years 1-5 fades from 20% to 16%; years 6-10 fades 15% to 13%. Residual income each year = BVPS(t-1) x (ROE(t)-r), discounted at 10%. Terminal value at year 10 assumes ROE converges to 12% with 3% perpetual book-value growth. Sum: BV0 ($27.99) + PV of 10 years' RI (approx $19.52) + PV of terminal value (approx $13.57) = $61.08/share.

Reasoning: As a bank holding company, value is driven by equity capital and the spread of ROE over cost of equity rather than unlevered FCF; CBNA's current 21.2% ROE is cyclically elevated by its politically-connected treasury/deposit franchise, so a fading multi-stage ROE path is more defensible than extrapolating peak ROE into perpetuity.