CeriBell, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-yr revenue-build DCF with margin ramp. Base: FY2026 revenue guidance midpoint $115M (28-31% growth). Revenue growth years 1-5 = 28%,24%,20%,17%,14% (reaching $228.2M by Yr5); years 6-10 = 12%,10%,8%,6%,5% (reaching $337.9M by Yr10). FCF margin ramps from -10% (Yr1) to breakeven by Yr3, to 20% by Yr10. Discount rate 11%, terminal growth 3%. PV of 10-yr FCF approx $112.2M; terminal value PV approx $306.5M. Enterprise value approx $418.7M + net cash $129.3M = equity value approx $548.0M / 38.38M shares = $14.28/share.

Reasoning: CeriBell (point-of-care EEG/seizure-detection medtech) is pre-profitability with 92% gross margin but heavy SG&A/R&D spend, so a revenue-driven DCF with an explicit margin-ramp to a mature steady-state FCF margin is more defensible than normalizing current negative FCF or using an earnings multiple.