CAVA Group, Inc.

CAVA ·Consumer Cyclical, Restaurants, United States
Valuation › AI Valuation

AI Valuation

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

AI Fair Value $20.17
Market Price $52.70
Overvalued By 161.3%

Method: 10-year two-stage FCF DCF built on a maturing FCF margin: $55M starting FCF base (TTM ~$49M); 22% FCF growth years 1-5 (unit growth toward management's ~1,000-restaurant 2032 target plus FCF-margin ramp as capex intensity eases); 10% years 6-10; 10% discount rate (execution/valuation risk); 4% terminal growth; $85M net lease-related debt; 116.81M diluted shares.

Reasoning: CAVA is a high-growth, early-scale restaurant chain where current FCF is depressed by heavy new-unit capex, so the method explicitly models continued unit growth and a maturing FCF margin rather than extrapolating today's thin ~4% FCF margin, while still using a higher discount rate to reflect the chain's unproven national-scale economics.