Casey's General Stores, Inc.

CASY ·Consumer Cyclical, Auto & Truck Dealerships, United States
Valuation › AI Valuation

AI Valuation

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

AI Fair Value $507.10
Market Price $618.30
Overvalued By 21.9%

Method: 10-year two-stage unlevered FCF DCF: $680M normalized base FCF (blend of FY2026 $722M and TTM $649M); 10% annual FCF growth years 1-5 (management's 8-10% long-term EBITDA-growth algorithm); 6% years 6-10; 8% discount rate; 3% terminal growth; $2.36B net debt; 36.96M diluted shares.

Reasoning: Casey's is a proven, steadily compounding convenience-store/fuel operator with a disciplined unit-growth and M&A roll-up algorithm, so a two-stage FCF DCF anchored to management's own long-term growth guidance (rather than the current cyclically-elevated 30%+ EPS growth print) is the most defensible method.