Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.

CALM ·Consumer Defensive, Farm Products, United States
Valuation › AI Valuation

AI Valuation

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

AI Fair Value $59.51
Market Price $67.15
Overvalued By 12.8%

Method: 10-year two-stage FCF DCF on mid-cycle normalized FCF: $150M normalized annual FCF (well below the current cyclically elevated TTM figure of $328.5M, which reflects a period of unusually high egg prices); 3% growth years 1-5; 2.5% years 6-10; 10% discount rate; 2% terminal growth; -$767.6M net cash; 46.92M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Cal-Maine is a commodity egg producer whose earnings and free cash flow swing dramatically with egg prices (driven by supply shocks like avian flu), so I normalized FCF to a mid-cycle level rather than extrapolating the current cyclical peak; the company's debt-free balance sheet is reflected in its large net cash position.