CalciMedica, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV): lead asset Auxora in acute pancreatitis (AP), post positive Phase 2b CARPO data (216 patients; 59-62% relative reduction in severe organ failure; 1.2-day mean hospital-stay reduction). Assumed $250M unrisked peak global sales, 25% peak unlevered FCF margin ($62.5M peak FCF), launch 2030 with a 10/30/60/90/100% 5-year ramp, flat through patent protection to 2038, -8%/yr terminal decline; 14% discount rate; 25% probability of technical/regulatory success applied to all post-launch cash flows (PV of risked product cash flows ~$42.1M) minus a risk-weighted ~$38.5M cost of the pivotal Phase 3 trial (3 years x $25M at 80%/65%/50% stage-survival probabilities); plus ~$8M unrisked option value for the earlier-stage PAH/CM5480 pipeline (5% POS); plus $18.6M net cash (6/30/2026) = ~$30.2M total risk-adjusted equity value, divided by 6.83M shares outstanding (post the August 2026 1-for-5 reverse split).

Reasoning: CalciMedica is pre-revenue, so cash-flow DCF and comparable-multiple methods do not apply; rNPV on the de-risked lead program (now backed by positive Phase 2b efficacy data and FDA alignment on Phase 3 design) is the standard clinical-stage-biotech method, with explicit probability-of-success and discount-rate inputs chosen to reflect the Phase 3/regulatory risk still ahead and the unrelated prior KOURAGE (AKI) trial failure that discontinued a separate indication.