Burford Capital Limited

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year levered FCF DCF using FY2025's normalized revenue ($382.8M, not the TTM figure which is distorted by large negative litigation fair-value marks) and an assumed 30% normalized net margin (~$115M Year-1 base); 8% annual growth years 1-5, 5% years 6-10; 12% discount rate; 3% terminal growth; 220.5M shares outstanding (estimated from a roughly $860M market cap at a roughly $3.90 share price).

Reasoning: Burford's GAAP revenue and net income are extremely volatile because they mark litigation investments to fair value on case outcomes, so a DCF anchored to TTM figures would be meaningless; normalizing to a representative recent full-year result and a sustainable margin, discounted at an elevated rate for binary-outcome litigation risk, gives a more defensible intrinsic-value estimate than the raw financials.