Armlogi Holding Corp.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 5-year explicit + terminal unlevered FCF DCF: revenue base $193.6M TTM; revenue growth 5%/5%/4%/4%/3% (years 1-5, continuing the deceleration from current +4.8% TTM growth); EBITDA margin normalizing from roughly -5% currently (TTM net loss -$20.7M) to -3%/-1%/+1%/+2.5%/+4% over years 1-5 as the warehouse network matures; capex 1.5% of revenue; 3% terminal growth; 16% discount rate (small-cap, thin-margin freight/3PL risk); net debt assumed roughly neutral (not separately disclosed); 45.44M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Armlogi is an asset-heavy third-party logistics/freight-forwarding company that is currently loss-making but has grown revenue consistently (FY2025 revenue +14% to $190.4M); a margin-normalization DCF is more appropriate than a static multiple because the key value driver is whether its recently built-out warehouse network reaches typical 3-4% 3PL EBITDA margins as it matures, which the flat TTM losses obscure.