BitGo Holdings, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year unlevered FCF DCF on NET (fee) revenue, not gross reported revenue. Base net revenue ~$565M annualized (Q2 2026: $131.8M of custody/stablecoin/staking/subscription fee revenue + ~$9-10M normalized trading-desk margin at management's stated historical 20-25bps spread on ~$4.2B quarterly digital-asset-sales volume, annualized x4; gross reported revenue of $4.33B/quarter is pass-through trading notional with only ~$40M quarterly gross profit and is not used as the valuation base). Net revenue growth 25%/yr years 1-3, 15%/yr years 4-6, 8%/yr years 7-10 (reflecting 31.4% YoY platform-asset growth and 26.2% YoY client growth decelerating as the company scales). EBITDA margin ramps from -5% (year 1) to 25% (year 10) as the recently announced $15-21M annualized cost cuts and operating leverage take hold (Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin on net revenue was approximately -3%). Tax rate 0% years 1-4 (NOL usage), 20% years 5-6, 25% years 7-10. Discount rate 18% (reflects pre-profitability, crypto-market volatility, and competitive/regulatory risk). Terminal growth 3.5%. Net cash added: $159.0M cash + $147.7M company-owned BTC (2,523 BTC) = $306.7M, no corporate debt. Shares outstanding 117.55M (108.69M Class A + 8.86M Class B per the Q2 2026 10-Q cover page).

Reasoning: BitGo's reported revenue is dominated by gross digital-asset trading notional with razor-thin (17-32bps) spreads, so a standard revenue-multiple or gross-revenue DCF would wildly overstate the business; discounting unlevered FCF built on true net/fee revenue and a realistic path to profitability (it is not yet profitable, recently cut costs and lost its CFO) is the only defensible real-calculation approach for a newly-IPO'd, pre-profit crypto custody infrastructure company.