Bio-Path Holdings, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV) of pipeline programs, since BPTH is a pre-revenue, cash-burning clinical biotech. BP1001/prexigebersen (Phase 1/1b leukemia/solid tumor): $400M risk-unadjusted value, 5% probability of success (POS), discounted 8 years at 13% WACC, PV about $7.5M. BP1002 (Phase 1/1b AML): $250M value, 5% POS, 8-year discount at 13%, PV about $4.7M. BP1001-A (preclinical obesity/T2D): $150M value, 2.5% POS, 10-year discount at 13%, PV about $1.1M. Sum pipeline rNPV about $13.3M, plus net cash of about $1.09M (cash $1.17M less debt $0.08M). Total equity value about $14.4M divided by 8.31M shares outstanding = $1.73/share.

Reasoning: BPTH is pre-revenue (oncology RNAi/DNAbilize platform, Phase 1/1b trials) with $9-12M/yr cash burn and minimal cash runway, so a standard FCF DCF is meaningless; rNPV of pipeline assets is the appropriate method for a clinical-stage biotech whose value rests entirely on trial/licensing success.