BP p.l.c.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year unlevered FCF DCF: base FCF $11.0B (grounded in BP's FY2025 actual FCF of $10.0B = $24.5B operating cash flow minus $14.5B capex, nudged up for 2026 guided capex cut to $13.5-14.0B); FCF growth 2.5% in years 1-5 and 1.5% in years 6-10; 8.0% WACC (CAPM cost of equity 8.6% from beta 0.79, risk-free 5.2%, equity risk premium 4.3%; cost of debt 5.5%; ~64/36 equity/debt weights); 2.0% terminal growth giving EV of ~$188.0B; minus net debt of $22.3B (30-Jun-2026) for equity value of ~$165.7B; divided by 15.5B ordinary shares in issue (net of treasury).

Reasoning: BP's headline IFRS net income is distorted by large non-cash impairments (FY2025 reported profit was near zero despite $24.5B of operating cash flow), so an unlevered FCF DCF is far more representative of intrinsic value than an earnings-multiple approach; the 8% WACC and modest single-digit growth path reflect BP's low-beta, investment-grade, moderately-levered capital structure and its mature-asset, energy-transition growth profile.