Blue Bird Corporation

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year unlevered FCF DCF: $153.3M FY2025 FCF base; 12% FCF growth years 1-2 tapering to 7% by year 5 (matching the 18.4% 2026 revenue growth guidance moderating as electric-bus mix normalizes); 4%-5% years 6-10; 10% discount rate for small-cap industrial/cyclical risk; 2.5% terminal growth; $132.7M net cash added; 33.3M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Blue Bird has a resilient replacement-driven school-bus order book plus an emerging electric- and propane-bus mix shift that is expanding margins; the moderate growth deceleration and 10% discount rate reflect both this favorable structural mix shift and the cyclicality/subsidy dependence of the school-bus replacement market.