BKV Corporation

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year revenue-growth/margin-ramp DCF: $1.14B FY2025 revenue base growing 30% in year 1 and 15% in years 2-3 (matching ~50% 2026 consensus growth from its Barnett Shale gas + Temple/data-center power JV ramp), decelerating to 4% by year 10; FCF margin improving from -15% currently (heavy growth capex) to a mature 20% by year 5 once the power infrastructure build-out completes; 10% discount rate for commodity/energy risk; 2.5% terminal growth; $902.6M net debt; 109.22M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: BKV is mid-build on its natural-gas-to-power vertical integration strategy (upstream gas plus power generation for data centers), so current heavy capex depresses FCF; modeling the margin ramp as the power JV assets come online better captures normalized cash generation than extrapolating today's negative FCF, while the discount rate reflects natural-gas price and execution risk.