BlackSky Technology Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year revenue-and-margin-ramp DCF: $140M 2026E revenue base (company guidance midpoint); revenue growth 35%/30%/25%/20%/18% years 1-5 tapering to 7% by year 10; FCF margin ramping from -5% (Y1) to 20% by Y10 as the business scales; 12% discount rate; 3% terminal growth; -$184.0M net debt; 40.92M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: BlackSky is a high-growth, still-unprofitable satellite-imagery and analytics company, so a straight FCF DCF on current cash flow is not meaningful; instead the model projects revenue toward the company's own guidance and ramps margins as government and commercial subscription revenue scales, with a higher discount rate reflecting execution and contract-concentration risk and explicit deduction of the company's meaningful net debt load.