Bakkt, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year net-revenue DCF on Bakkt's fee/services revenue (excluding pass-through crypto trading volume): $20M 2026E net revenue base; growth 60%/50%/40%/30%/25% years 1-5 as stablecoin infrastructure ramps, tapering 20% to 8% years 6-10; FCF margin ramping from -60% (Y1) to breakeven by Y4 and 20% by Y10; 15% discount rate reflecting high execution and crypto-market risk; 3% terminal growth; $51.8M net cash; 45.07M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Bakkt's GAAP revenue is dominated by pass-through crypto trading volume (down 70% YoY) and is not representative of economic earning power, so intrinsic value is better estimated from projected net/fee revenue tied to the company's stated pivot to stablecoin and loyalty infrastructure; a high discount rate and wide margin ramp reflect the pre-profitability, thesis-dependent nature of the business.