Brookdale Senior Living Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year unlevered FCF DCF (EBITDA minus maintenance capex minus cash taxes, discounted at WACC, less net debt): FY2026E EBITDA base of $509M (company guidance midpoint of $502-516M); EBITDA growth tapering 10% to 6% in years 2-5 off the ~11% FY2026 guided growth, then 4%/yr in years 6-10 reflecting US 80+ population growth; capex starting at $205M growing 3%/yr; minimal cash taxes early due to NOL carryforwards, ramping to $40M by year 10; 9% WACC; 2.5% terminal growth; less $5.10B net debt (total debt $5.49B, cash $0.37B); 238.8M diluted shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Brookdale is a heavily levered senior housing operator where equity is a thin residual claim above roughly $5.1B of net debt, so an EV-based unlevered FCF DCF built from disclosed EBITDA guidance and capex, with debt netted out before dividing by shares, better captures both the leverage risk and the demographic (aging population) growth tailwind management is guiding to than a simple market multiple or a levered FCF-to-equity shortcut.