BetterLife Pharma Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV) of the lead pipeline asset (BETR-001): assumed $200M peak annual sales in a niche CNS/neurology indication, 25% net margin (~$50M peak FCF), commercial launch in year 8 from today with a 4-year ramp to peak (years 8-12), flat peak years 12-17, then patent-cliff decline (70%/40%/20% of peak in years 18-20, zero thereafter); discounted at 13%; risk-adjusted by a 7% cumulative probability of technical/regulatory success (typical industry benchmark for a pre-IND CNS asset); plus ~$1.5M estimated net cash (thin cash position per FY2025 20-F); ~161.9M shares outstanding (derived from $37.2M market cap / $0.23 share price).

Reasoning: A pre-IND, pre-revenue, single-asset biotech cannot be valued on current or near-term cash flows, so rNPV is the standard method for pipeline-stage drug assets, since it explicitly weights a plausible commercial outcome by the (low) probability the asset actually reaches market. The resulting value is well below the current market price, consistent with the market pricing in speculative optionality beyond a strict risk-adjusted fundamental case, which is typical for this category of micro-cap biotech.