KE Holdings Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year two-stage unlevered FCF DCF: $800M normalized FCF base (between FY2025's negative RMB983.9M FCF, distorted by integration/capex timing, and FY2024's RMB8,410M/~$1,168M FCF, weighted toward the stronger recent profitability trend evident in Q2 2026's +100.8% YoY net income growth); 5% annual FCF growth years 1-5 (property-market stabilization phase); 8% growth years 6-10 (gradual recovery/diversification phase); 11% discount rate reflecting China/VIE structural and regulatory risk; 3% terminal growth; ~$7.8B net cash; 1,118.2M ADS-equivalent shares

Reasoning: KE Holdings' free cash flow has been highly volatile with China's property cycle, so a normalized base blending recent years is more defensible than either the negative FY2025 figure or the unusually strong FY2024 figure; the discount rate is set above what a comparable US company would warrant to reflect the VIE ownership structure and PRC regulatory/capital-controls risk explicitly