Bloom Energy Corporation

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year two-stage unlevered FCF DCF: $400M normalized FCF base (well below the $625M TTM figure, which reflects a recent AI-data-center order surge; also above the $57M FY2025 figure, splitting the difference to avoid extrapolating a single blowout period); 20% annual FCF growth years 1-5 (my mid-case, versus 8-10% low and 30-35% high); 10% growth years 6-10; 11% discount rate reflecting customer-concentration and execution risk; 3% terminal growth; approximately net-debt-neutral balance sheet; 294.53M shares outstanding

Reasoning: Bloom's cash flow has swung from a $57M FY2025 figure to a $625M TTM figure almost entirely on a handful of large AI-data-center power deals, so the DCF starts from a normalized base rather than either extreme and applies a high discount rate for customer-concentration risk; the resulting value sits well below the current share price, reflecting that the market is pricing a far more durable AI-power supercycle than this normalized calculation assumes