BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year two-stage unlevered FCF DCF: $210M normalized FCF base (below the $373M TTM figure, which is inflated by one-time Astria-deal license income; normalized off ~$700M FY2026 guided revenue at a ~30% FCF margin); 11% annual FCF growth years 1-5 (my mid-case estimate, between the 4% low case of ORLADEYO stalling and the 20% high case of multiple pipeline wins); 8% growth years 6-10; 10% discount rate reflecting execution/regulatory risk; 3% terminal growth; $469.6M net debt; 257M diluted shares outstanding

Reasoning: BioCryst is a commercial-stage rare-disease biotech now cash-flow positive on ORLADEYO, but its reported TTM FCF is distorted by one-time license payments tied to the 2026 Astria acquisition, so a DCF needs a normalized cash-flow base reflecting the underlying product business plus a probability-weighted view of the expanded HAE/complement pipeline