Bally's Corporation

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-yr unlevered FCF DCF. Base annualized Adjusted EBITDAR ~$781M, less ~$220-255M/yr cash rent (GLPI master leases) to get EBITDA of $585M (Yr1) growing to $986M (Yr10) as revenue grows from ~$3.17B to ~$4.96B, margin held near 25% EBITDAR. Capex ~$130-200M/yr maintenance plus Chicago completion and Bronx casino contributions. Cash taxes ~$0 through Yr5 (NOLs) then ~20% of EBIT. WACC 12%; terminal growth 3%. EV ~$4.84B. Net debt (funded debt only) ~$4.42B ($4,506.7M long-term debt + $303.8M revolver draw - $390.2M cash). Equity value ~$0.42B / 50.47M diluted shares ~ $8.30/share.

Reasoning: A leverage-aware DCF that separates EBITDAR from cash rent is the right lens for a REIT-lease-heavy regional casino operator, and it must reflect Bally's near-term liquidity stress (an August 2026 going-concern disclosure) and heavy committed development capex; the result sits just below the $12.21 current price and near the low end of the $7-$11 analyst target range.