Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year EBITDA-to-FCF DCF: $19.66M TTM EBITDA growing 12% annually years 1-5 (expanding aerial-firefighting contract fleet/utilization) and 5% years 6-10; FCF approximated at roughly 50% of EBITDA after fleet maintenance capex and taxes; 12% discount rate; 3% terminal growth; resulting enterprise value of ~$171M is compared against ~$260M of net debt, leaving a near-zero to slightly negative residual equity value

Reasoning: Bridger Aerospace carries heavy fleet-related debt (net debt of ~13x EBITDA) and an Altman Z-Score signaling elevated bankruptcy risk, so even under a constructive growth scenario for its essential government firefighting contracts, the DCF-derived enterprise value does not clear the debt load, implying equity is worth very little today despite bullish sell-side price targets