Mission Produce, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year unlevered FCF DCF. FCF base $37.2M (FY2025, ended Oct-2025, on revenue of $1,391M). Growth 12% per year years 1-2, 7% per year years 3-5, 4% per year years 6-10 (long-run normalization as avocado-category growth matures, versus historical 3-year revenue CAGR of 12.7%). Discount rate 9%. Terminal growth 3%. PV of years 1-10 FCF ~$352.7M; terminal value discounted ~$504.4M; enterprise value ~$857.1M. Less net debt of $136.1M gives equity value ~$721.0M. Divided by 72.0M diluted shares gives ~$10.01/share.

Reasoning: Mission Produce is a vertically integrated avocado (plus mango/blueberry) grower-distributor with genuine but commodity-price- and harvest-cycle-driven cash flow, so a phased DCF that front-loads near-term growth optimism and fades it to a mature long-run rate is the most defensible approach; the 9% discount rate reflects agricultural/weather risk and geographic sourcing concentration.