Aura Biosciences, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV) of lead asset bel-sar (Phase 3 CoMpass trial in primary choroidal melanoma, topline data 2H 2027) plus net cash. Assumed peak global sales of $600M reached by 2034; FCF margins ramping from -83% (2029 launch) to ~32-33% at scale; probability of success 45%; discount rate 12%; terminal growth 2% after 2035. Sum of discounted, probability-weighted explicit FCFs (2029-2035) approx $147M; PV of terminal value approx $328M; rNPV approx $474M. Add pro forma net cash of ~$395.5M = equity value approx $870M / 103.70M shares = $8.39/share.

Reasoning: Aura is a clinical-stage, pre-revenue biotech with a single near-term Phase 3 readout and ample cash (runway into 2H 2028), so a risk-adjusted NPV of the lead program plus net cash is the standard and appropriate method rather than a DCF on non-existent current cash flow.