Aurora Innovation, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Scenario-based revenue-multiple-at-maturity DCF (since near-term FCF is deeply negative and a standard FCF DCF is not meaningful): projected 2030 revenue under three scenarios anchored to Aurora's own disclosed 2030 targets (30,000 driverless trucks, $5B revenue, 60% gross margin) - Bear $1.0B (execution/regulatory delays), Base $2.5B (partial achievement of company target), Bull $5.0B (full achievement) - applied an EV/Sales exit multiple reflecting each scenario's implied margin/growth quality (4x bear, 6x base, 8x bull, consistent with high-growth asset-light software/platform comparables), discounted each resulting 2030 enterprise value back 4.25 years at a 17% discount rate (reflecting high execution, regulatory, and competitive risk for a pre-revenue-scale autonomy company), then added today's net cash of $1.14B and divided by a dilution-adjusted ~2.8B projected 2030 share count (current 2.00B shares, assuming ~35-40% cumulative dilution to fund the $190-220M/quarter cash burn through the company's stated 2028 free-cash-flow breakeven target) - giving per-share values of roughly $1.14 (bear), $3.16 (base), $7.74 (bull), which I probability-weighted 30%/40%/30% to a fair value of approximately $3.90.

Reasoning: Aurora Innovation is a pre-profit autonomous-trucking company with only $5M TTM revenue and 2026 guidance of just $14-16M, making a standard free-cash-flow DCF meaningless (FCF is roughly -$700-900M/year currently); the company itself frames its investment case around a 2030 revenue/margin target (per its Q2 2026 8-K), so discounting a range of plausible 2030 outcomes at a multiple appropriate to the margin profile achieved, then adjusting for balance-sheet cash and expected dilution, is the more defensible method here.