Atomera Incorporated

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: rNPV/real-option valuation. Net cash = $38.4M cash minus $1.28M capital-lease debt = $37.12M = $0.95/share on 39.02M shares. Atomera earns negligible current revenue from licensing its Mears Silicon Technology (MST); assumed 25% probability of reaching meaningful commercial licensing; if achieved, assumed steady-state licensing revenue of $50M/yr at an 80% incremental margin = $40M FCF/yr, risk-adjusted to $10M/yr. Valued as a 10-year annuity at a 15% discount rate starting in year 5 = $50.2M at year 5, discounted back 5 years = $25.0M today. Total = $37.12M + $25.0M = $62.1M / 39.02M shares = $1.59/share.

Reasoning: A semiconductor IP-licensing option business with near-zero current revenue and heavy ongoing cash burn cannot be DCF'd on trailing cash flow; treating it as net cash plus a probability-weighted royalty annuity is the appropriate way to price the binary adoption outcome.