Astrana Health, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year revenue-and-margin-ramp DCF: revenue base $3.95B (year 1, midpoint of FY2026 guidance of $3.8-4.1B) growing 10%/9%/8%/7%/7% years 1-5 then 6%/6%/5%/5%/4% years 6-10; FCF margin ramping from 3.3% (FY2025 actual) to 6.0% by year 10 as G&A efficiency (AI-driven automation cutting G&A toward ~6% of revenue) and full-risk membership scale improve conversion; 9.5% discount rate; 3% terminal growth; net debt $570M; 50.5M diluted shares.

Reasoning: Used a revenue-and-margin DCF because Astrana's FCF has historically trailed its fast top-line growth (heavily boosted by the Prospect Health acquisition) due to thin margins typical of a full-risk value-based-care model; growth rates are anchored to the ~7.8%/yr 3-year analyst consensus (below the unsustainable 49-59% recent M&A-driven growth) with margin expansion reflecting management's own G&A-efficiency and mid-to-high-teens EBITDA growth targets, and a 9.5% discount rate reflects leverage (~156% debt/equity) and medical-cost-trend risk.